This Week in Mets: What do the Mets need to know before the deadline? (2024)

“Since we can’t pursue time that is passed, let us at least celebrate it joyfully and gracefully while it is passing by.”
—“Wilhelm Meister’s Apprenticeship,” Johann Wolfgang von Goethe

Tuesday marks one week until the July 30 trade deadline — the perfect time for the I-assume-much-ballyhooed-and-long-awaited return of This Week in Mets. While the New York Mets have positioned themselves as buyers at the deadline, there’s plenty of latitude within that label.

So with seven days to go, let’s examine a few questions the Mets need to answer about themselves before embarking on external additions.

Which facet of the offense is likeliest to need help?

For weeks, the Mets offense has been one of the best in the league, propelled by Francisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo at the top of the order with Francisco Alvarez’s return and José Iglesias’ rejuvenation providing crucial assistance. That offense is bound to slow down at some point; how can the Mets best prepare themselves to supplement it then?

According to ZiPS projection system over at FanGraphs, the three positions where the Mets figure to receive worse production moving forward are second base, third base and right field. One main reason for that possible regression? Of all the Mets’ key contributors to this point in the season, Iglesias is the one out over his skis the most. Entering this season, he owned a career OPS+ of 88; this year it’s 188. The club’s joy around Iglesias’ “OMG” song has belied how valuable he’s been on the field, allowing the Mets to withstand Jeff McNeil’s struggles and Starling Marte’s recent injury.

If Iglesias were to fall back to his career norms, the Mets’ offense would dip. New York would have to lean more heavily on a turnaround from McNeil, on a return from the injured list from Marte, on sustained production at third base from Mark Vientos and maybe on better numbers from Tyrone Taylor or DJ Stewart.

An ideal deadline addition, then, would cover the Mets for this possibility, bringing them a bench bat with experience at either the middle infield or the corner outfield. The Los Angeles Angels’ Luis Rengifo is the best option, as he could play all over the place, though he’d represent a starting-level addition likely beyond the Mets’ price point. Former Met Amed Rosario could work, as well.

How many bullpen solutions do they possess internally?

Two weeks ago, when the Mets saw a 2-2 game in Pittsburgh unravel with Eric Orze and Adrian Houser on the mound, it was fair to wonder if they needed an entirely new bullpen. They’d lost Brooks Raley and Drew Smith, they’d watched Adam Ottavino and Jake Diekman struggle, they didn’t know night to night what Edwin Díaz could provide. Was there anyone Carlos Mendoza could trust?

In the fortnight since, that unit has stabilized to an extent. Díaz had compiled nine consecutive scoreless outings before allowing a run Monday night. Phil Maton, acquired earlier this month from the Tampa Bay Rays, brings an experienced back-end right-hander. And maybe most importantly, Dedniel Núñez and Jose Buttó have looked like a legitimate set-up bridge.

Núñez wasn’t even invited to major-league spring training; he’s been the Mets’ best reliever this season by almost any measure. After excelling for multiple frames in mop-up spots, he’s pitched and pitched well in bigger spots since the final week of June. For the season, Núñez is striking out better than 35 percent of opposing hitters while walking fewer than 6 percent. In the last decade, Díaz is the only Met to post a strikeout rate that good, and only Díaz, Addison Reed and Seth Lugo have finished seasons with better strikeout-to-walk ratios.

Effective as a starter this season, Buttó has been electric as a reliever; he allowed his first run in the role Monday night, struck out more than a third of opposing hitters and owns a WHIP below 0.700 in that small sample.

The Mets still need help in that bullpen, and who knows how long both Buttó and Núñez will pitch quite like this? But perhaps New York only needs to bring in one or two arms rather than four or five.

Can the Mets afford to be cute with their rotation?

With Kodai Senga returning this week, the Mets plan to go to a six-man rotation. Senga will join a rotation that already includes Jose Quintana, Luis Severino, Sean Manaea, David Peterson and Christian Scott. The Mets also have Buttó and Houser in their bullpen, as well as Tylor Megill and Joey Lucchesi in Triple-A Syracuse.

Theoretically, the Mets could capitalize on a seller’s market and deal from their starting surplus, backfilling with their depth. Quintana, in particular, made sense to move as a veteran innings-eater set to become a free agent this winter. In the last several weeks, though, the dynamic has changed a bit: Quintana’s been a significant part of the Mets’ turnaround, Scott has struggled since his return to the majors, the club has committed to a six-man rotation with Senga’s return, and Buttó has emerged as a bullpen weapon. If New York were to deal Quintana (or Severino, who’s in a similar contractual situation), it would be relying on Megill to take a regular turn in the rotation and leave few backup plans if and when an injury strikes.

Given how tight the wild-card standings are, such maneuvering could be too cute by half, especially if the return isn’t that substantial. In our Trade Deadline Big Board, Severino ranked 13th among starting pitchers, and Quintana ranked 19th — too low to make the top 50 targets. (In 2022, amid an overall better season, the Pittsburgh Pirates’ Quintana was traded alongside reliever Chris Stratton to the St. Louis Cardinals for young starter Johan Oviedo.)

The exposition

The Mets salvaged a split of their four-game series in Miami with Monday night’s win. They’ve lost only one of their last 14 series, though a penchant for splitting series makes that less impressive in reality. The Mets are 51-48 and in the third wild-card spot in the National League.

The New York Yankees split their wraparound series with the Rays in the Bronx. They’re 60-42, 1 1/2 games behind Baltimore in the AL East.

Atlanta lost two of three at home over the weekend to the Cardinals. It still sits well behind the Phillies in the NL East but in a comfortable wild-card position in the National League. The Cincinnati Reds won the first of a three-game series at Truist Park Monday night.

The pitching possibles

at New York (AL)

LHP Jose Quintana (4-6, 4.13 ERA) v. RHP Luis Gil (10-5, 3.17 ERA)
LHP Sean Manaea (6-4, 3.73) v. RHP Gerrit Cole (3-1, 4.60)

v. Atlanta

RHP Luis Severino (7-3, 3.58) v. RHP Charlie Morton (5-5, 3.92)
RHP Kodai Senga (12-7, 2.98 in 2023) v. RHP Spencer Schwellenbach (3-5, 4.62)
RHP Christian Scott (0-3, 4.56) v. RHP Reynaldo López (7-4, 2.12)
LHP David Peterson (5-0, 3.14) v. LHP Chris Sale (13-3, 2.70)

Injury updates

Red = 60-day IL
Orange = 15-day IL
Blue = 10-day IL

• Kodai Senga is slated to return on Friday.
• Starling Marte has begun “low-impact” baseball activities. There’s still no real timetable for his return.
• Sean Reid-Foley could start a rehab assignment this week.

Minor-league schedule

Triple-A: Syracuse at Buffalo (Toronto)
Double-A: Binghamton at Richmond (San Francisco)
High-A: Brooklyn v. Rome (Atlanta)
Low-A: St. Lucie v. Palm Beach (St. Louis)

Last week in Mets

• Takeaways from the first few days in Miami on the pitching staff
• Is Jeff McNeil breaking out?
• Second-half storylines
• Where did the 2015 Mets fit among the best trade deadlines of the last decade?

A note on the epigraph

Speaking of out over his skis, I took a class on Goethe and Hegel during my first semester in college. I spent a lot of that semester citing Gob Bluth’s “I made a huge mistake,” which you should know was a very contemporary reference at the time.

Trivia time

Unsurprisingly, the Mets’ two best records in the second half of a season came in playoff years: 1969 and 1988. Their third-best came in a year in which they didn’t make the postseason. What year was it?

(I’ll reply to the correct answer in the comments.)

(Photo of Jose Quintana: Luke Hales / Getty Images)

Tim Britton is a senior writer for The Athletic covering the New York Mets. He has covered Major League Baseball since 2009 and the Mets since 2018. Prior to joining The Athletic, he spent seven seasons on the Red Sox beat for the Providence Journal. He has also contributed to Baseball Prospectus, NBC Sports Boston, MLB.com and Yahoo Sports. Follow Tim on Twitter @TimBritton